Volatility Contraction Breakout (ATR percentile)
Waits for a volatility contraction — ATR (as % of price) in the lowest percentiles of its recent history for several bars — and then trades the first close outside the Donchian channel. Contractions store energy; the breakout direction decides the side. The trade is managed with an ATR trailing stop and closed if price falls back to the channel middle.
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1h BTC / ETH / SOL perpetuals. Position size is a % of equity (Properties). Commission 0.06% per side. Back-test BTCUSDT 1h (Bybit, 0.06% fee/side, funding not included): 2023–2025 +62% (PF 2.01, max DD 14%, 80 trades); unseen 2025–2026 +11% (PF 1.37, 35 trades). Past results don't predict future ones. Concept: Volatility clustering (R. Engle, 1982); Donchian channel breakouts (R. Donchian, 1960s); "volatility contraction pattern" (M. Minervini).
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Back-tests and forward tests are simulations; past results do not predict future ones. Nothing here is financial advice. Trading carries a high risk of loss.